2012 Outlook
Before I get into 2012, let me look back at my 2011 predictions and see where I missed the mark and where I did not.
I said SEARCH will be hot and it sure was. Google's refocus on search as its core revenue generating technology, the sale of Endeca to IBM and, SAP's acquisitions and finally GoogleVentures' increasing portfolio of early stage investments in analytics based companies across both B2C and B2B space.
I said VISUAL DISPLAYS will be king in the B2C space - well I see more 3D gaming, more off the shelf technology for displaying metrics and I just saw a view from Microsoft labs demonstrating transparent cell phones in development. I was very close on this one.
CONTENT MANAGEMENT @ HOME was a downer. We did not see as many innovations in 2011 as I had expected. Neither did see services based approach, expect a cloud offering from Apple and Google - which was one small piece of the pie. Motorola had a half baked idea at CES 2012 recently but nothing too useful.
CONTENT CREATION was huge. Especially consumer content. As global markets boast denser internet penetration and as mobile access to content creation tools gain momentum, 2011 saw bigger boost in multimedia content. This has its good and bad sides. If everyone sounds like an expert then no one is an expert. Consumer generated content, especially for commerce, has somewhat diluted my ability to think objectively.
I said POWER would be big. 2011 saw more dollars put in alternative fuels, energy and battrey technologies than the past 5 years. But no innovations yet. 2011 was the year of realizing this gap and funding ideas.
I said HEALTHCARE IT would be big. It indeed was . . . 2011 was implementation mode in the hospital and research world. Consumer healthcare start-ups are through the roof - almost a gold rush kind of a scenario.
Now onto 2012 and where I see the big opportunities:
- Analytic Convergence: How do I connect the dots between social media channels, transaction channels for my products - both on and off line and print media. There are companies addressing this we are still in kindergarden as far as true meaningful insights go.
- Consumer Health: related apps, companies and services are popping up everywhere. The good news is that everyone realizes that this is an issue and innovation will not come from the big boys. The bad news is that ultimately in order for these companies to function as designed, reach the masses and allow them to collaborate - you will have to engage the big boys - which means the most innovative or compelling idea may not win. E.g. GoogleHealth. The companies that really matter in my opinion are CVS/Medco (powered by Surescripts), UnitedHealth, Wellpoint, Cigna and the Blues. Bet's are these folks address ~70% of the covered population in the United States. That's ~100 million people and their money flow. Pharma, device and bio-tech companies all need distribution, coverage and management so ultimately - these companies above dominate no matter what the circumstance. And he who controls the distribution and money to the masses control innovation.
- Gaming: Face it - we like to be entertained but now we like feedback and sometimes even helped while being entertained. No matter what the situation or the context. Eating, playing, travelling, watching ads, buying stuff, teaching, learning, receiving healthcare - even sleeping and exercising. And there are game based apps for every need now - most of them absolutely useless but that's R&D dollars to where the market is going. Whether you like to play alone or collaborate - the opportunity is to 'entertain your way through commerce, healthcare and going about your daily life'. Figure a way out to build a game that allows you to obtain points based on how much you walk and redeem those points at Amazon or iApps and you are a winner.
- Mobility: There is no more "web vs. mobile". No matter what the device, we're all connected to the internet all the time. I now have 14 devices in my household alone that connect to the internet, 5 of them 24x7. With mobility comes expectations - I was really annoyed recently to learn that I have to "plug" in my point and shoot camera to download pictures so I am thinking about buying an wireless SD card. I want to share, communicate, see and do things like commerce instantly. Anything that forces me to wait or extra effort will not cut it. I want my car electronics to remind me on my phone that I need to fill in a gas and tell me where I can get the cheapest one (Yelp+BMW=Awsomeness). I want hands free concierge (Reverse Siri) to schedule my appointment for my next haircut based on a reminder, I want my phone to tell me if I need to schedule an appointment with my doctor as I am not feeling well and I want my cell phone to provide immediate medical grade diagnostics.
posted by Janak Joshi @ 1/08/2012 04:20:00 PM
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